Vote 2009: A Tale of Two Elections

Blue state New Jersey is now a shade of purple with the election of Republican Chris Christie as Governor. Despite repeated visits by a popular President Obama and being outspent three-to-one, Christie rolled to a 100,000 vote (49-45 percent) victory over incumbent Governor Jon Corzine. Surprisingly, independent gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett – despite predictions by some of a double digit percentage performance – was no factor in the race, polling just 6 percent.

All of the election night drama played out in the gubernatorial race. The legislative elections where all 80 General Assembly seats were at stake produced only minimal change. In fact, every incumbent Assembly candidate won re-election. Only one seat changed hands --  Dominick DiCicco, a Republican challenger in the Gloucester/Camden  District 4, defeated Democratic challenger Bill Collins in a race to fill the seat of retiring Assemblywoman Sandra Love (D). With all votes counted, Democrats retain control of the Assembly by a 47-33 margin.  

Gubernatorial Race

How does an incumbent Governor of a political party with an 800,000 registered voter advantage see 340,000 voters swing against him in just four years (Corzine won by 240,000 votes in 2005). Two trends are clear: Relative to the 2005 election performance, Governor Corzine underperformed in staunchly “Democrat” counties (take Bergen County where Corzine’s 6,000 plurality was 28,000 votes less than in 2005) while his challenger Chris Christie overperformed in typically strong “Republican” counties. Here are some interesting county pairings:

Corzine Country: Essex County (+70,000 vote plurality in 2009; drop of 15,000)
Christie Country: Ocean County (+70,000 vote plurality in 2009; gain of 48,000)

Corzine Country: Hudson County (+50,000 vote plurality in 2009; drop of 12,000)
Christie Country: Monmouth County (+65,000 vote plurality in 2009; gain of 50,000)

Corzine Country: Camden County (+17,000 vote plurality in 2009; drop of 15,000)
Christie Country: Morris County (+45,000 vote plurality in 2009; gain of 23,000)

Corzine Country: Union County (+10,000 vote plurality in 2009; drop of 17,000)
Christie Country:  Somerset County (+23,000 vote plurality in 2009; gain of 14,000)

Corzine Country: Passaic County (+10,000 vote plurality in 2009; drop of 17,000)
Christie Country: Hunterdon County (+20,000 vote plurality in 2009; gain of 8,000)

Corzine Country: Middlesex County (-5,000 vote plurality in 2009; drop of 35,000)
Christie Country:  Sussex County (+20,000 vote plurality in 2009; gain of 9,000)

Legislative Races
Despite a strong performance in counties across New Jersey, Chris Christie’s supporters yielded little in the way of coattails. Republicans picked up just one seat – Domenick DiCicco in District 4. Candidate DiCicco clearly benefited from Christie’s upset victory in Gloucester County, which he carried 47-44 percent.
Here’s our election wrap-up with NEW JOBS, the Business PAC of New Jersey endorsed candidates in bold. Overall, only two NEW JOBS endorsed candidates lost on Election Day.  

• In the big picture, not much changed.  With State Senate special election victories Senator Jim Beach (D-6) and Assemblyman Mike Doherty (R-23), the Senate composition remains 23-17 in favor of the Democrats.  In the General Assembly, Democrat control shifted to 47-33 from 48-32 as Democrats dropped one seat.

• The action, such as it was, concentrated in only a few districts:

• The historically Republican Cape May/Cumberland District 1 is Republican no more. Thought to be the best hope for Republican pick up this election, Democrat Assemblymen Nelson Albano and Matt Milam easily defeated Republicans Mike Donohue and John McCann, a stinging loss coming despite Christie’s 5,500 vote victory in Cape May County.
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• In the Gloucester/Salem counties District 3, newly appointed Assemblyman Celeste Riley withstood a challenge from Robert Villare (R), who came within one percent of victory despite receiving no support from the statewide GOP organization.
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• In the aforementioned District 4 race, Assemblyman Paul Moriarty (D) led the voting with just a 800 vote margin over GOP challenger Domenick DiCicco. Moriarty’s running mate, Bill Collins, ran 1,000 votes behind DiCicco. 

• In Middlesex County’s District 18, Assemblyman Peter Barnes and Assemblyman Pstrick Diegnan won their election rematch against Republican challenger Joe Sinagra, but saw their margin of victory cut in half from 2007 – from 4,000 to 2,000 votes.

• In the hotly contested Passaic/Bergen/Essex counties’ District 36 , Assemblymen Gary Schaer (D) and Fred Scalera (D) cruised to easy victories over Republicans Don Diorio and Carmen Pio Costa..